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Tuesday, February 28, 2012

Oil Imports, Trade Deficits, and the US International Investment Position -- II

The consequence of importing oil at a rate of a billion dollars a day is that the net foreign investment position of the United States is steadily eroding.

REVISED February, 2012. My original article was posted January 2011.
This revision adds improved charts and data.

The US annual trade deficit has been growing since 1980, reaching about $750 billion a year in 2006.   The annual trade deficit diminished sharply in the 2009 recession to about $380 billion a year.  It's interesting to note that at a billion dollars a day, oil imports accounted essentially for the entire trade deficit during the recession.  


Let’s begin with a look at the volumes and costs of oil imports.   The United States began importing significant volumes of oil in the 1950s, and sharply increased imports about 1973.   Volumes of imported oil are sensitive to price.   The volume of imported oil declined due to high prices in the early 1980s, and volumes increase again following the price decline in 1986. 


The volume of imported oil exceeded the volume of domestic production in 1989.  Imports peaked in 2006 at 14 million  barrels per day (MMBPD).  Imports have since declined to 11 MMBPD due to recession, increased price, and a 0.5 MMBPD increase in domestic production. 

Prices have increased dramatically in recent years, rising from an average price of about $20/barrel through the 1990s, to a current price of $125 per barrel (Brent).  Future prices are likely to be volatile, given political instability in the Middle East, and the reasonable prospect of peak oil, offset by potential new technologies and the large potential for efficiency and conservation in oil-intensive economies (see Winning the Oil Endgame, Amory Lovins). 

Given the recent increase in the price of oil, the cost of imports to the US economy has increased from roughly 10 $ billion per month (2000 – 2004) to over 40 $ billion per month today, at yesterday’s Brent price of $127 per barrel. 

The U.S. Net International Investment Position represents the cumulative influence of the balance of trade, receipts and payments of income, investment performance and transfer payments and transactions.  The net investment position of the United States turned negative in 1986, and it currently about 2.5 $ trillion, or about 20% of annual GDP.  

By comparison, the cumulative cost of imported oil since 1981 probably passed 4 $trillion dollars last year.  The cost of imported oil in recent years is an ever-increasing negative slope, paralleling the negative trend of our international investment position. 

Alternatively, we could focus on the cost of importing consumer electronics, textiles, cars, metals or other imports.  But the cost of imported oil is clearly one of persistent reasons for the loss of American wealth and damage to the American economy.




Sunday, February 12, 2012

Peak Oil V -- Discovered, Undeveloped Reserves in the Middle East


So far, in the Peak Oil Series, we first looked at peak oil theory, and some principles of oil reserves.   We also considered sources of new reserves-- forecasts for new discoveries, lag in recognizing reserves in new fields, and growth in recovery efficiency.   This post is about another source of new oil-- discovered, undeveloped reserves in the Middle East.  

Let’s take a look at two charts, that taken together have significant implications for peak oil. 
 The first chart is by Fredrik Robelius, from his PhD thesis at the University of Uppsala, 2007.  The chart shows the rate of production in the Middle East, from giant fields and from smaller fields



The second chart is the “creaming curve” for the Middle East, by Jean Laherrere, 2010.    Cumulative reserves discovered is on the vertical axis, and fields are on the horizontal axis in the order of discovery.  Note that the curve initially rises sharply and then flattens; the largest fields are found first, and progressively smaller fields are discovered with increasing exploration maturity.

Let’s see why these charts are significant.

Robelius presents an analysis of giant fields as an approach to peak oil.  Giant fields are defined as fields with greater than 500 million barrels of ultimate recoverable reserves.  Historically, giant fields have dominated production. 


Production plots for Europe and North America show mature production in clear decline.  Production from fields smaller than giant fields represent about half of peak and post-peak production.

Production plots for Africa and Asia are show currently increasing production.  Production in Africa is increasing, due to contributions from deepwater offshore fields, while Asian production is increasing on increasing contributions from smaller fields. 

Charts for Eurasia (Former Soviet Union) and South America show peaks, decline, and resurgent production.  In both cases, the early peak and decline represent easily-accessed oil, and the later peak represents more remote and difficult production.  Political events contributed to the decline in both cases.   The contribution of smaller fields remains significant, again representing about half of current production.


Robelius’ plot for the Middle East shows a dramatically different picture.    First, note that the scale of the chart is considerably larger than any of the other continental charts, with current production exceeding 20 million bpd.  Second, note that about 90% of production is coming from 79 giant fields.    Production from giant fields is still increasing, and smaller fields have made relatively little contribution to date.

Recall that oilfields have a fractal-like size distribution.  Large fields imply the existence of smaller fields.  From this chart, and comparison to the charts of mature petroleum provinces, we can conclude that substantial additional production can be expected from fields smaller than 500 million barrels in the Middle East.  If smaller fields match the contribution of giant fields, as has happened in every other petroleum province, we can expect an additional 20 million barrels per day of production from smaller fields in the Middle East.

From Robelius’ charts alone, it might be suggested that the super-giant fields (> 10 billion barrels) of the Middle-East dwarf the contribution of small fields, and that small fields in the Middle-East will not reach the percentage contribution seen in other parts of the world.  That is probably partly true.  But we have another piece of data in the creaming curve presented by Jean Laherrere.

In Laherrere’s chart, we see that 1400 fields have been discovered in the Middle East.  The upper bright green curve represents official reserve estimates, totaling 1000 billion barrels.   Laherrere has discounted the official reserves by 30% to create the dark green curve, totaling 700 billion barrels.    (Laherrere cites sources describing 300 billion barrels of the official figure as speculative reserves.)    
Consider the lower curve, and estimate the reserves attributable to 79 fields.  (Remember that the fields are not in rank order, but in order of discovery.)  The sum of the steepest parts of the curve, for 79 fields, would seem to be about 400 billion barrels.   This still leaves about 300 billion barrels of discovered reserves in over 1300 oilfields which have barely been tapped. 

Development of smaller fields in the Middle East will require substantial capital, and political stability.   But when the giant fields of the Middle East begin their inexorable decline, there is a substantial resource available in smaller fields which can be brought on production.   Depending on the timing of development, these fields may raise the volume of global peak production, to the range of 90 – 100 million barrels per day, or delay the peak by some years.
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Jean Laherrere is co-author of “The End of Cheap Oil”, Scientific American, 1998.   
Other publications can be found on the APSO (Association for the Study of Peak Oil) France website.



Fredrik Robelius, Giant Oil Fields – The Highway to Oil
http://uu.diva-portal.org/smash/record.jsf?pid=diva2:169774



Monday, February 6, 2012

Peak Oil IV: Recognition Lag and Reserve Growth

According to Hubbert’s theory, Peak Oil should occur when half of the global oil endowment has been produced.   We explored this idea in the first post of the Peak Oil series.  Cumulative production to date through 2011 has been about 1365 billion barrels.    Production has not yet peaked, which implies a global endowment of over 2730 billion barrels.   This number is reasonable, considering the USGS mean estimate of 3000 billion barrels, and high estimate of 3900 billion barrels for the recoverable global oil endowment.

We know very well that oil discoveries peaked in the 1960’s.  Why then, is it so difficult to quantify the global endowment of oil?  Let’s look at the work of two researchers, Fredrik Robelius and Richard Nehring.

Recognition Lag
Fredrik Robelius wrote a very important contribution to the theory of Peak Oil as a PhD thesis at Uppsala University in 2007.  I will use only a single figure from that thesis at this time, but I hope to write more about it in a later post. 

Robelius’ figure shows volumes of global oil discoveries, by the year of discovery.  Reserve estimates are back-dated to the year of discovery, and clearly shows the peak of oil discoveries around 1960, and the cross-over, when global production exceeded volumes of new discoveries about 1985.   Robelius’ figure shows another interesting dimension which is seldom presented:  the volumes of reserve growth in old fields.   Estimates made about a decade apart, in 1994 and 2005, show large positive revisions to previous estimates; “new” reserves in old fields. 

Reserve growth is well-known and expected.  There are various reasons for reserve growth: revisions to estimates of oil in-place, production performance data, additional drilling, step-outs and field extensions, secondary and tertiary recovery technologies and investments, and the innate pessimism of reserve estimates by Production Department engineers(as opposed to the innate optimism of reserve estimates by Exploration Department geologists).   In particular, proved reserves estimates are expected to be of reasonable certainty, according to both law and professional practice.   According to guidance provided by staff of the United States Securities and Exchange Commission, upward reserve revisions should be much more likely than downward revisions.

In the 1980’s, Richard Nehring realized that a number of years may pass before a field is fully evaluated, and that the reserves are estimated correctly.  In the paper “What Really Happened in 1986”, Nehring   coined the term “recognition lag” to describe the phenomenon.   Most reserve growth happens in the first few years of field delineation, but we see in Robelius’ chart that fields discovered in 1960 had about 100% reserve growth, doubling the total oil endowment, 35 years after discovery!   Some researchers have attempted to derive a formula to estimate the volume of reserve growth in later years.  However, I believe that reserve growth is too random to develop meaningful predictions from early trends.   

Reserve Growth
Nehring has recently concentrated on the idea of reserve growth through improvements in recovery efficiency (“Recovery Growth”), which is the recoverable fraction of oil in the ground.    I greatly respect Nehring's work and insight, but believe the estimates he presents are too high.  Furthermore, he should not simply add the low and high estimates in each category to obtain the low-to-high range.  These should be combined using a probabilistic approach.

Nehring presents a range of the world oil endowment with a low, middle and high estimates of 3270 – 4290 – 5620 billion barrels.  By comparison, the USGS range of estimates is 2250 – 3000 – 3900.  Nehring’s higher estimates depend largely on his assumptions about recovery growth.  His low, medium and high ranges (715 – 1095 – 1585 Bbbls) represent assumed global average recovery factors of 35% - 40% - 45% of original oil in place.  Nehring says that this will take 50 to 80 years to realize. 

Based on experience and technical reading, I find Nehring’s recovery range too high.   Global giant oilfields are currently at about 22% recovery, and are expected to reach ultimate recoveries of 30% to 35%.    There is a fair amount of complexity to the issue.  Fields in carbonate reservoirs represent about 60% of remaining oil.  Recoveries in carbonate fields are highly variable, like the reservoirs, and I find contradictory numbers for expected average recovery, with the low side between 20 – 25%, and the high side at 36% (SPE paper 84459).

There are physical, technical, and economic limits to increasing oil recovery.  Oil can be withdrawn from a reservoir, but the saturation of oil approaches a limit called the irreducible saturation, at which oil will no longer move through the pore system.  Reservoir heterogeneity also limits the physical recovery possible from a reservoir.  Low porosity,smaller reservoirs offshore or remote locations, and great drilling depth all tend to reduce the technical and economic recovery of oil.   However, these are characteristic of many of the remaining developing oil fields.  Examples include Tengiz and Kashagan in Kazakhstan, fields of the Russian arctic, undeveloped fields of the Middle East.   I expect relatively lower fractional recovery from these fields than earlier discoveries.  The law of diminishing returns is alive and well, and I expect global average recovery to be about 35%.   This would support the low end of the range proposed by Nehring on recovery growth, of about 700 billion barrels.

As an aside, the low-medium-high ranges proposed by Nehring for independent variables should not be added as simple sums.  These uncertainty ranges should be added stochastically, which will result in a narrower distribution.

Fredrik Robelius, Giant Oil Fields – The Highway to Oil
http://uu.diva-portal.org/smash/record.jsf?pid=diva2:169774

Richard G. Nehring,  Peak Oil: Why, When, and How


Other references
EOR projects are not suited to offshore, deep, small, heavy or unconventional reservoirs.

Global recovery factors are expected to ultimately be 30 – 35%.

Recovery factors in high-quality uniform sandstone reservoirs after secondary recovery  may be 40 to 60%; but the norm is considerably lower.  In chalk limestone fields is generally in the low 20’s. 

60% of remaining oil is in carbonate fields.
The overwhelming majority of proven oil in the Middle East is in carbonate reservoirs
Recovery in fractured carbonate reservoirs is 20% - 25%.  


Overall, the carbonate oil reservoirs have an average ultimate recovery factor of 36%.

SPE 84459

Often noted that most reserve growth occurs in first 6 years after discovery.



Monday, January 30, 2012

Index

Overall, this blog is about human welfare on a global scale, with some attention to national, local and personal issues.  This post gives provides an index by topic to previous posts.

Here is a summary of the major themes in this blog. 
My first theme is to examine the relationship between GDP and the physical well-being of people in a society.   Second, I look at energy consumption and integrity as important factors in determining GDP.   My third theme is peak oil, and consideration of how we will provide the future energy necessary for human health and development.   My final general theme is integrity and fairness in government and society.

GDP and Human Welfare
In Praise of GDP
Data Visualization

GDP as a Function of Energy and Integrity
The Wealth of Nations
Corruption vs. per Capita GDP
Oil Consumption and Productivity

Alternative Energy
Can we replace gasoline by driving electric cars?

US Oil Consumption and Oil Imports
US Oil production and Oil Imports
Oil Imports, Trade Deficits, and the US International Investment Position

Peak Oil
Peak Oil I   Theory of Peak Oil
Peak Oil II   Oil Production by Hemisphere
Peak Oil III    Forecasting Future Oil Discoveries

Energy
Energy Return on Investment

US Economy
Geography of a Recession

Data Visualization

Limits to Growth

Risk
On Progressive Risk-Taking

Alaska Oil and Gas Production

Climate Change

Corporate Governance, Integrity
Corporate Governance Reform
Executive Compensation

US Federal Budget
Federal Budget
Military Spending

Russia
Stalin Remembered

Creative Process

Government
Edmund Burke

Friday, January 6, 2012

Stalin Remembered


Note:  If you read only one thing from this blog post, skip all of my words, and scroll to the links given below in the section "Geologist to Geologist Website".  And, of course, I hope you will read the rest as well.
-------------------------
We would want to know everyone, name by name,
Yes, they have taken away the list, and there is nowhere to find out.
Poet Anna Akhamova, “Requiem”

A few years ago I was in Moscow, touring the historic Novodevichy Convent with a Russian friend.  We encountered an American, and he struck up a conversation with me.   He soon began to loudly criticize the Russian people, embarrassing me, embarrassing my Russian companion, and especially embarrassing the fellow’s Spanish wife.   He said that Russians had covered up the legacy of Stalin, and that they were not dealing honestly with their history.  He said that Russians would never be free until they acknowledged the evil that had occurred under Stalin.   I ended the conversation and moved on, but I did not forget.  I’ve made several more trips to Russia, read books, listened and learned a great deal.   And now I want to show my countryman that he was wrong.

The same view is expressed in a recent book:  It was a Long Time Ago, and Never Really Happened Anyway, David Satter, published this month.  Here is one of many reviews on the internet.

So what really happened in Stalin’s time?   You can read about it in Wikipedia.   Or in Gulag Archipelago.

This blog post is not about history.  This post is about memorials to Stalin’s victims.  It is enough to say that incomprehensible numbers of people suffered horribly, and incomprehensible numbers of people died.  Soviet people suffered political repression, arrest and imprisonment, labor camps, ethnic relocation, illness, starvation, famine, and execution.   These people were from every walk of life:  scientists and government officials, home-makers and soldiers, workers, field geologists, poets, teachers, priests and writers.  You can see their photographs in museums.  With each face there is a short paragraph telling each tragic destiny:  arrested, imprisoned, repressed, freed, re-arrested, executed.  Pale faces with haunted dark eyes stare from old black and white photographs.  Their letters beg us not to forget, and never to forgive. 

So let’s take a deep breath, collect our thoughts, calm our souls, and remember that we live in another century.  Let’s take a stroll through some Russian culture and memorials to Stalin’s victims in Russia, and try to understand the Russian attitude about Stalin.   We’ll begin on a light note, with an episode from a childrens’ show in Soviet time.

“Thank you, Comrade Stalin, for my Happy Childhood!”
Let's first consider one of the most famous propaganda phrases of Stalin’s era:  “Thank you, Comrade Stalin, for my Happy Childhood!”   It is known to every Russian as a bitterly ironic memory of Soviet propaganda.
Let’s look at how it was presented on children’s television, late in the Soviet era.   Eralash (“Muddle”) is a children’s comedy show on television which has run continuously since 1975 to the present.  The format consists of short, satiric skits; the skits are well-acted and wickedly funny.   The skit “Time Machine” was presented in 1988.  
The message was still indirect at that time, but unmistakable.  In this skit a boy (notice the sweater that says “Perestroika” in English) has built a time machine.   After some chatter about Ivan the Terrible, the children bring Joseph Stalin to life in the time machine.   The boy in the Perestroika sweater shouts the ironic phrase known to every Russian:  “Thank you Comrade Stalin, for my happy childhood!”   Stalin replies: “Correct, boy, correct!“    The stunned silence and slow applause that follows the phrase is more telling than the thunderous applause added to the sound track a little later.  The Eralash children's audience understood well the satirical and ironic character that was the hallmark of the show.  They could not possibly mistake the meaning of this skit.

Now let’s return to Moscow, and cross the bridge from the Cathedral of Christ the Savior to the south bank of the Moscow River.

Park of Fallen Monuments
We will take a walk in the park.   On the south side of the Moscow river you can find Sculpture Park, beside Tretyakov Art Gallery.   Sculpture Park is sometimes called the Park of Fallen Monuments.  Lenin and Stalin are there, along with other works of art.  

As you walk around the exhibit, you look up at two towering and heroic statues of Stalin.  The statues are beautifully made of polished granite.   Surrounding Stalin, on all sides, are statues representing his victims.   To the right, there are tormented figures writhing on the ground; to the left, gaunt standing figures.  Behind Stalin, there is a prison wall topped with barbed wire, and lights.  Behind the bars of the wall are hundreds of stone heads, representing Stalin’s victims.   The nose has been broken from the face of the larger statue of Stalin.  Altogether, the presentation is one of the most damning and emotional artistic compositions I have ever seen.

Unfortunately, there are plans for a new project which will replace the existing art gallery and encompass the present area of the park.  It is not known what will happen to the statues and art currently in the park.

Comrade Stalin, You Are a Great Scholar
Let’s walk again through Moscow to the Nikitsky Gate theater, to see the popular, long-running stage show, “Songs of our Courtyard”.    The show is a musical revue, featuring nostalgic popular songs from the 1950’s through 1980’s.    The peak of the show is when Mark Rozovsky, director of the theater, takes the stage to sing “Comrade Stalin, you are a great scholar” (Yuz Aleshkovsky, 1959).    When performing indoors, because of rain; he is lit by a single candle; if outdoors, by a single spotlight.   It is a stunning performance.   Although this poem is very well-known, I was unable to find an English translation on the internet.   So, here is Mark Rozovsky’s performance on YouTube, and my translation below.

Aleshkovsky wrote his song about 6 years after the Stalin’s death.  Stalin’s terror included repression for academic articles on linguistics.  The character in the song is a professor of linguistics, imprisoned for a politically incorrect publication in his field.

Товарищ Сталин, вы большой ученый
Comrade Stalin, you are a great scholar
You know the sense of linguistics.
But I am a simple Soviet prisoner
And my comrade is a grey Bryansky wolf.

Why I sit here, I really don’t know,
But the prosecutors, it appears, are right.
Today I sit on the Turukhansky province
Where you sat in exile in the time of the tsar.

To others’ sins we lowly confessed
Deported, we went to meet evil destiny
We believed you so, Comrade Stalin,
As perhaps I didn’t believe myself.

And so I sit in the Turukhansky province,
Where guards are as rough as curs,
I understand all this, of course,
As the sharpening of the class struggle.

The rain, the snow, the midges over us,
And we in the taiga from morning to morning,
Here, from a spark you started a flame,
Thanks to you, I warm myself by the fire.

It must be difficult for you; you care about
Everything on earth, in the melancholy hour of night
You pace in a Kremlin office,
Smoke a pipe, without closing your eyes.

But we bear a heavy cross for nothing
By frosty smoke and in melancholy rain
We fall like trees on wooden bunks
Not knowing the insomnia of leaders.

Yesterday we buried two Marxists,
Bodies dressed in bright red bunting.
One of them was right-leaning,
The other, it seemed, was not related to anything.

Before he passed away forever
He bequeathed to you his final words.
Ordered to investigate uncouth business,
He silently screamed: Stalin is the head!

Live for a thousand years, Comrade Stalin,
And let me necessarily be slaughtered in the taiga.
I believe there will be cast iron and steel
Fully enough per capita.

I believe there will be cast iron and steel
Per capita in the country.’

Yuz Aleshkovsky, 1959
---
Bryansk province is in western Russia, bordering Ukraine and Belarus.  Turukhansky Province is in Northern Krasnoyarsk Territory.

Here is the Russian text of the song, and a video of Aleshkovsky performing the song. 

Monasteries – Suzdal and Vladimir
Monasteries were convenient institutions for the secret police (NKVD) during Stalin’s time.  All religious institutions were converted to other purposes – orphanages, storehouses,factories…. a church was even converted to planetarium.   Many churches were destroyed.  But monasteries, with monks’ cells and a wall around the perimeter, made perfect prisons.  In the ancient religious centers of Suzdal and Vladimir, exhibits and memorials show the places of repression, imprisonment, and execution in the old monasteries.   

Here are a few photos from a monastery in Suzdal, and translations.

Olga Adamova-- Sliozberg
“I address to you, my children, grandchildren, greatgrandchildren and friends.... I ask of you, I beg you, I order you, I require from you -- don't forget us, who are thrown in prisons and labor camps.
Remember the tormented innocents there and do not forgive our executioners, because to forgive is impossible.”

.

In Vladimir, flowers grow in a sunny alcove in the monastery wall, and a cat sleeps nearby in the fallen leaves.  A polished grey stone tells us that in this place political prisoners were executed in the 1930s.


Geologist to Geologist Website – Memorial Book
Please take time to explore this website, a tribute to Russian geologists prepared by Dr. Svetlana Tikhomirova.  In particular, explore the section titled “Memorial Book/Repressed Geology”.   There is a stunning amount of material and research.   I ask you to look at these three selections:

Please look at the fate of many women geologists during the time of Stalin.
Scroll down to the table, showing the fate of attendees of the 17th International Geological Congress.
Specialists of the Tadzhik-Pamir Expedition

"Golodmor" -- Ukrainian Famine 1932 - 1933
Now let's take a train to Kiev.   Stalin's legacy encompasses all of the former Soviet Union.   In 1932 - 33, Ukraine, Kazakhstan and southern Russia suffered a major famine, caused by collectivization of agricultural lands and unfavorable weather.  Mis-allocation of food by Soviet authorities and prohibition of travel worsened the problem.  Recent estimates are that between 2.5 and 7 million Ukrainians died in the famine.  Today, it is impossible to accurately understand what really occurred.  Many records were lost or destroyed, and much of the analysis is based on inference from census surveys before and after the event.
Golodmor has become a theme of Ukrainian nationalism.  Both Ukrainian and western historical work are thought to be influenced by political goals.  But the fact that famine occurred is without question.
In Kiev, you can see three major monuments to the famine.  Perhaps the most touching is dedicated to children who died in the famine.  It is the thin statue of a young girl, shown in the photo below.  The waif is constantly surrounded by gifts of apples and flowers given daily by passersby...about eighty years too late.


Demonstrations By Day, Ravens By Night
I found an interesting bi-lingual book “Old Vladivostok” in a doctor’s office.  The book focused on the history of the city, and the architectural destruction of Soviet times.  But I found an interesting phrase:  “Demonstrations by day, Ravens by night”.   It was a phrase common in Stalin’s time, and perhaps is known to Russians today.   “Ravens” refers to the black squad cars used by the NKVD secret police, who apprehended and arrested people at night.


Sakharov Museum
We return to Moscow to the Sakharov Museum.   Andrei Sakharov was a Russian nuclear scientist and architect of the Russian hydrogen bomb.  He became a leading Soviet dissident and activist for peace and human rights.   The Sakharov Museum and Community Center was founded in 1991.  It houses thousands of photographs and documents documenting the terror, repressions, and human rights abuses during Soviet times, and modern memorials to the victims.  Here is a photo from an exhibit in the museum.
The actual exhibit is located at the Kommunarka Firing Range on the southwest outskirts of Moscow, at km 24 on the Kakuga Highway, site of massive executions and burials.    The sign reads:
"In this earth lie thousands of victims of political terror of the years 1930 to 1950.   To them, eternal memory!”  
But the Sakharov Museum was empty.  Out of a city of 12 million people, it appeared that only one American visitor came that day.  But at the Pushkin Museum, there was a three-hour line for an exhibition of art by Salvador Dali.  At the Sakharov Museum, finally, a young Russian couple arrived just as I was leaving.   Why is the museum empty?   Russian already know these things.  They know their history, they have built the monuments, they spent their anger, they have mourned, and they have moved on.   Russians today face today’s problems.
----------
 As a final item, I found the following poem by Lermontov.   It seems to me that Lermontov forsaw Stalin.

M. Lermontov, 1830

Prophecy

A year will come – of Russia’s blackest dread;
Then will the crown fall from the royal head,
The throne of tsars will perish in the mud,
The food of many will be death and blood;
Both wife and babe will vainly seek the law;
It will not shield the victims anymore;
The putrid, rotting plague will mow and cut
And boldly walk the road from hut to hut;
In people’s sight its pallid face will float,
And hunger’s hand will clutch them by the throat;
A scarlet sea will send its bloody surge;
A mighty man will suddenly emerge;
You’ll recognize the man, you’ll feel
That he has come to use a knife of Damask steel;
Oh horrid day!  Your call, your groan, your prayer
Will only make him laugh at your despair;
And everything in his forbidding sight –
His brow, his cloak – will fill the land with fright.

Monday, December 26, 2011

The Creative Process

About 15 years ago, I attended a course in Creative Thinking.  The instructor asked us to release our inhibitions, to let random thoughts come into our minds.  He emphasized that creative thoughts often appear when we are relaxed, daydreaming or in the shower.  All of that true.  But it misses the point about how to become a creative person.

This blog post is about the process of Creative Thinking.  Creative Thinking can be learned, and it can be practiced.  It is a set of very specific steps, in a specific order.  This blog post is about those steps, and how to prepare for the creative moment (and what to do afterwards).  Please take a tour, try some exercises, and practice the Creative Process.



Creativity is a deliberate process that clever people use to solve problems.  Creativity is not taught in school; it is usually self-discovered.  But it is clear that creative people have independently discovered the same process and are applying the same methods.  Creativity can be learned, and it improves with practice.

Here is what I see in creative people.  They work very hard.  They are passionate about their subjects; they become experts; they use visualization and drawings; and they use specific thought processes to solve their problems.

Creativity is equal parts analysis and imagination. Through the steps of the creative process, you will alternate your focus of your thinking from imaginative to analytical several times.
We will contrast Plato—truth is found in the mind and imagination, with Aristotle—truth is found through objective observation.  Creative people know that both are required.

 Betty Edwards, author of “Drawing on the Right Side of the Brain”, and “Drawing on the Artist Within”, describes these steps in the creative process.


What does First Insight look like?
It’s usually a picture.  I like this sketch of a flying machine by Leonardo da Vinci, because it has the character of a frantic idea scribbled on the back of a bar napkin.


The other part of a first insight is reducing that visual insight to a question.  A questioning attitude is important for developing first insights, and framing a question the right way is critical to its solution.  This is our first example of alternating between visual and analytical processes.
 What are you really trying to solve?
Start with the end in mind, and use visualization techniques and sketches to define it (visualization).  Then transform the vision into a question or goal (analysis).

Feynman's diagrams, which he developed as a personal visualization tool, became the foundation of his work for which he received the Nobel prize in physics. 







People in artistic pursuits also practice a kind of data saturation, as appropriate to each field.   A jazz musician must practice hundreds of musical patterns, modes, chords, and arpeggios, becoming fluent in all 12 scales.  A ballet dancer learns the language of gesture and form; a painter studies the masters and practices technique and composition.  For writers, it is said that the first million words are practice.






































A powerpoint presentation of this course is available by request.  
Copyright Doug Robbins 2011.