Seabird Die-off Near Kodiak Island, 2015

Ten years ago this month, my wife and I took a fishing charter off the south coast of Kodiak Island.  We launched into the ocean from a gravel beach near our lodge.  As soon as we were in open water, we noticed a dead sea-bird floating on the water.  Then another.  Then another.  There were dead birds on the water, spaced about every 50 to 100 yards (meters).  As we sailed, we saw more dead birds.  We traveled about 20 or 30 miles from shore that day, going into deeper waters to fish for halibut.  We saw dead birds the whole day – dead birds all the way to the horizon.

The birds were murres and kittiwakes.  Murres look a bit like penguins, and kittiwakes look like seagulls.  The die-off near Kodiak was part of a much bigger die-off of seabirds along the entire south Alaska coast.  Biologists’ autopsies showed that the birds starved to death.  Reports say that 4 million murres died, about half of the total population.  It was one of the largest single-species die-offs on record.  The biologists’ maps that I saw didn’t even include the birds that died near Kodiak. 

The waters near Alaska are normally some of the most productive in the world.  Deep waters normally rise to the surface in a process called “upwelling”, carrying nutrients from the ocean floor.  Those nutrients sustain a robustly abundant marine food chain from plankton to humpback whales.  Arctic waters are prolific because the water is the same temperature, and therefore density, from the sea floor to the surface.  Nutrient-rich deep waters easily rise to the surface because temperatures are constant from the surface to the sea floor.

In 2015, the northern Pacific experienced an abnormal, persistent area of warm water, termed a marine heat wave, or less technically, “The Blob”.  The warm water stratified the water column, with warm water floating on top of the denser cold water below and blocking the upwelling currents.  Deep waters no longer flowed to the surface.  Nutrients didn’t reach shallow water, and millions of birds starved to death.  Other species were noticeably impacted.  Chinook salmon abundance declined.  The following winter, the number of humpback whales migrating to Hawaii fell by 50%.  After ten years the population of murres has still not recovered.  

This morning, I saw a report that “The Blob” had returned to the North Pacific, which prompted me to write this post.

Oceans are warming world-wide, from the surface downwards.  Warmer surface waters increase the chances of a marine heatwave. 

We understand what is happening, why it is happening, and we can expect more damage to the North Pacific birds, fisheries and whales as warming continues.

---------------
Common Murre image credit: Dick Daniels (http://carolinabirds.org/), Wikimedia Commons
Kittiwake image credit:  Yathin S Krishnappa – Wikimedia Commons.  (https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=24551364)

2020 Climate Review; Global and Alaska

 Unsurprisingly, the global climate in 2021 continued to warm and to experience climate-related disasters.  Global air temperature tied 2016 as the warmest year on record.  Oceans continued to warm, and marked the warmest year on record.  Oceans absorb about 95% of heating from greenhouse gases, and thus have a more consistent increase in temperature.  

According to Carbon Brief, CO2 emissions in 2020 fell by about 7% compared to 2019, due to economic cut-backs during the Covid-19 epidemic.  Nevertheless, average atmospheric CO2 ended the year at about 413.5 ppm, a rise of about 2.5 ppm over 2019 (ESRL/NOAA).  That rate of increase is not significantly different than the previous decade.  For reference, pre-industrial levels of CO2 were about 280 ppm.

Alaska had a relatively mild 2020 in terms of climate change, cooler than recent years, with temperatures in the range of temperatures of the 1980, but still warmer than earlier decades.  There were fewer climate-related wildfires, and the warm-water "blob" in the Gulf of Alaska did not develop during 2020. Nevertheless, the long-term trajectory of climate change in Alaska is still clear.

 Low soil moisture results in dry plants, which cause wildfires to burn hotter and faster.  Low soil moisture also causes dead undergrowth, which provides fuel-loading to forests, increasing fire danger.

Robert Rohde of Berkeley Earth prepared the chart above.  Annual averages of precipitation and temperature during the California fire season are shown in a color spectrum ranging from cool to warm colors representing 20-year intervals.  The chart shows a slow progression toward warmer temperatures, with the most significant change in the last twenty years.  Note that the ten largest wildfires, and the ten most destructive wildfires all occur in the warmest & driest quadrant of the chart.  The amount of change in the past 40 years is dramatic, and sobering if these trends continue over the next 40 years.

Alaska had a relatively moderate year regarding climate events in 2020.  Nevertheless, the long-term trends remain.  NOAA published a report card indicating that changes in the Arctic are likely to be permanent.

 The chart shows temperature change since 1945.

Arctic temperatures are rising two to three times faster than the rest of the globe, as a consequence of feedback factors from loss of snow and ice.  This effect was predicted in climate models by the Jasons' report in 1979.  Note also that air temperatures over land has warmed more than the oceans. 

Oceans absorb about 95% of heat retained by greenhouse gases.  The absorption of heat, and evaporative cooling, keeps air temperatures over oceans lower than over land.  Therefore, air temperatures over land are increasing faster than the global average, which is inconvenient, because we live on land.

Alaska temperatures clearly show the impact of Arctic amplification.  North Slope temperatures in the fall season have been sharply higher since the mid-1990s, due to early loss of Chukchi Sea ice.

Thunderstorms have become measurably more frequent near Fairbanks since about 1990.  The state's biggest wildfires typically occur near Fairbanks, and are most often caused by lightning.

Alaska's climate continues to change rapidly, and future decades are likely to bring serious, detrimental change. 

California Wildfires, Climate Change, and Lisa Murkowski Message #12

 Synopsis

Alaska Senator Lisa Murkowski and James Hubbard, USDA Undersecretary for Natural Resources and the Environment, recently produced a session of the Senator’s podcast, talking about the extraordinary wildfire season in the Western US.  These public servants failed to acknowledge man-made climate change as the ultimate cause of the fire intensity.  Increased fire size and intensity were clearly forecast in the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) Impacts report in 1990, thirty years ago.  The causes of increased fire intensity were clearly identified in that report: higher temperatures and drought, leading to low soil moisture, dry plants and deadwood, increased fuel loading and increased lightning strikes.  Every contributing factor identified in the 1990 report has been realized and today’s wildfires are larger and more intense as predicted.  To neglect the explanation for that intensification is irresponsible.  Murkowski and Hubbard failed to inform the public, not only about what happened in 2020, but to warn the public of future risks as CO2 emissions and climate change continue unchecked.

Murkowski’s Message #12

In September of 2020, California was wracked by some of the largest and most destructive wildfires in its history.  Senator Lisa Murkowski, in her role as chair of the Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources, met with James Hubbard, USDA Undersecretary for Natural Resources and the Environment, to discuss the crisis.  Senator Murkowski posted audio of the twenty-minute interview as #12 in her series of Murkowski’s Messages, available here:  https://vimeo.com/459453081. 

I listened to the entire discussion. There is practically no mention of climate change, although Murkowski and Hubbard danced around the topic, with Murkowski making a passing reference to “the changing climate”.  However, they quickly brushed that idea aside and focused instead on overstocked fuel conditions in the forests.

Undersecretary Hubbard noted the persistence of abnormal fire conditions in the western states, with Hubbard saying, “…it has been developing for a long time, and it’s certainly going to be with us for a long time….We can expect this kind of fire behavior for some time to come.”  Hubbard also noted the significance of high heat and low humidity in intensifying the fires, and stated “This is unusual, but I think we will see more of it.” 

For her part, Murkowski dismissed the idea of seeking causes for the intense fires.  The Senator said that others were asking, “Why are we seeing so much?  What can be done?  Who is responsible, and who is to blame?”, but these were not questions she wanted to pursue.  In my view, this is deeply flawed.  On the contrary, these are exactly the questions we must answer if we want to avoid even worse wildfires in the future.

Incredibly, this talk by the Senator and the Undersecretary avoided all mention of human-caused climate change, which is the most significant factor in causing the disastrous Western wildfires.  Let me be clear – the dry and hot weather conditions of recent years in the West are due to the accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, principally CO2 from human use of fossil fuels.  Hot and dry weather cause low soil moisture, dry plants, and more deadwood.  Low soil moisture causes excess fuel in the forest, and causes fires to burn hotter and faster.  As Undersecretary Hubbard acknowledged, these conditions are strikingly different from the past and will persist a long time.  In fact, these conditions will persist as long as elevated CO2 in the atmosphere persists.  Levels of atmospheric CO2 will inevitably increase in coming decades, worsening the wildfire problem in the West.  We are not likely to return to the CO2 levels and climate conditions of the 20^th century for another century or more. 

Forecast of Increased Wildfires, 1990 IPPC Impacts Assessment

For thirty years, we’ve been warned repeatedly that human-caused climate change will result in more destructive wildfires.  Beginning in 1990, each report of the ICPP (Intergovernmental Committee on Climate Change, a UN agency) has warned about the increasing danger of wildfires.  The series of National Climate Assessments produced by the United States have also highlighted the danger. 

The 1990 IPCC Impacts Assessment lays out in explicit detail how and why wildfires are becoming worse, depending on geography.  Temperatures are higher, and some areas are subject to drought; these cause a number of second-order changes that intensify wildfires.  Later IPCC reports provide even more area-specific forecasts.  Here are a few quotes from IPCC 1990 Impact Assessment:

• "Losses from wild-fire will be increasingly extensive" (Policy-Makers Summary, p. 2)
• “Fire damage is expected to increase with the susceptibility of forests.  Even if precipitation remains roughly the same, increased temperatures will lead to increased evapotranspiration and thus drier sites.  Warmer drier sites could have a higher incidence of severe fires, especially where stands are in a state of decline because of climatic changes” (p. 2-25).
• “…blocking high pressure patterns, more lightning strikes and increased fuel loadings are a dangerous combination causing more and larger fires" (p. 2-25).
• “Wildfire frequency and severity is expected to increase throughout most of the unmanaged lands because of the projected increases in available fuel as primary productivity increases and because of the increased amount of dead fuel accumulating as a result of increased mortality” (p. 3-19).
• “In those forested areas where there is a decrease in soil moisture, drying of forest fuels will be enhanced, thereby increasing the amount of available fuel”  (p. 3-20).
• Increased fuel loading resulting from climate change was forecast to cause a three-fold increase in the number of fires greater than 1000 hectares in the Sierra Nevada (p. 3-20). 

Temperature, Precipitation and Fires in California, 2000 – 2020

Dr. Robert Rohde of Berkeley Earth compiled temperature and precipitation data for the California fire season from 1895 to 2020.  The animation of the data can be found on Dr. Rohde’s Twitter page, and is quite striking.  The trend of increasing temperatures and decreasing precipitation across the decades is quite evident in his chart, with 19 of the years from 2000 to 2020 occurring above the midpoint in temperature, and 12 of those 20 years occurring in the hot and dry quadrant of the chart.  The last two decades have also seen the largest deviations from normal conditions of the preceding century. 

Dr. Rohde also posted the ten largest fires and ten most damaging fires in California’s history on the chart, by year.  The year with the farthest excursion from normal temperature and precipitation, 2020, also had the worst fire record.  Other years with bad fire records, 2017 & 2018, were among the years with the farthest excursion from normal.  It’s worth noting that all of the large and destructive fires occurred in the hot and dry quadrant of the chart.

Figure 1.  California temperature and precipitation, 1895 – 2020, with the ten largest fires and ten most damaging fires.  Chart created by Robert Rohde, Berkeley Earth, and used by permission.

Low soil moisture is a consequence of high temperature and low precipitation.  Most of the years since 2000 have been marked by persistent drought conditions in the west.  The USDA published nationwide maps of drought conditions, which have been seasonally persistent in the American West since the year 2000.   National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), a department of NOAA, publishes maps of soil moisture over the lower 48 states.  Relative soil moisture is shown as a percentile map with respect to historical conditions.  Maps of drought conditions and soil moisture show persistent conditions that predispose the West to high fire activity since the year 2000. 

Figure 2.  Drought conditions, week of September 15, 2020, USDA map.

Figure 3.  Soil Moisture Percentile (relative to history) September, 2020, map from NCEP, NOAA.

Of course, California was not the only place on earth to experience severe fires in recent years.  Dr. Rohde also prepared a similar chart of temperature and precipitation for New South Wales, Australia.  Although Dr. Rohde did not include fire statistics on this chart, the decadal shift in temperature and precipitation is clearly apparent on this chart. 

Figure 4.  New South Wales temperature and precipitation, January – October, 1900 – 2019.   Chart created by Robert Rohde, Berkeley Earth, and used by permission.

In Alaska, Senator Murkowski’s home state, wildfires have also been larger and more damaging.  Lightning initiates most of the wildfires in the state.  It follows that increased thunderstorm activity results in more fires.  The location of the state’s largest recent fires, generally north and east of Fairbanks, corresponds with the highest summer temperatures and increased thunderstorm activity.  This information is documented in communications by Rick Thoman, climatologist with the International Arctic Research Center (IARC), Fairbanks. 

Figure 5.  Alaska Wildfire Acreage, Season Total, 1950 – 2019.  Chart by Rick Thoman, IARC.

Figure 6.  Fairbanks Alaska, Annual Days with Thunder, 1952 – 2020.  Chart by Rick Thoman, IARC.

Conclusion

It’s clear that the scientific forecasts of wildfire intensity in 1990 were correct.  The processes causing more intense wildfires are higher temperatures and lower precipitation, which lead to low soil moisture, dry plants and more deadwood.  Higher temperatures and low precipitation in California and Australia are predictable consequences of human emissions of greenhouse gases, which continue to accumulate in the atmosphere.  The conditions which lead to large, fast-moving and destructive wildfires didn’t “just happen”, and will worsen in coming decades. 

Senator Murkowski and Undersecretary Hubbard failed the public by not discussing the actual causes of the wildfires in their public communications.  Explanations matter, and causes matter.  Senator Murkowski’s questions -- “What can be done?  Who is responsible, and who is to blame?” – are pertinent questions.  Human emissions of CO2 are responsible; consumers of energy are to blame.  And the best thing to do is to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases, significantly and quickly.   

The physical processes of climate change are well-established, proven science.  We’ve known how it works for over 120 years.  We’ve had pretty good estimates for how much temperatures would change, depending on how much CO2 was in the air, for almost as long.  The forecasts of more intense wildfires, made 30 years ago, have been entirely accurate.  At this point, in 2020, it is important for our public leaders to acknowledge man-made climate change as the ultimate cause of intense wildfires, and to give a credible warning that the situation will only get worse as temperatures continue to rise.  Senator Murkowkski and Undersecretary Hubbard have done the public a disservice by neglecting to address the cause of 2020’s extraordinary fire season, and to give a warning for the future.  It’s time for them to address the public truthfully.

References

Murkowski's Message #12    https://vimeo.com/459453081

Arrhenius, 1896, On the Influence of Carbonic Acid in the Air upon the Temperature on the Ground  https://www.rsc.org/images/Arrhenius1896_tcm18-173546.pdf

Arrhenius, 1906, The Probable Cause of Climate Fluctuations http://www.friendsofscience.org/assets/documents/Arrhenius%201906,%20final.pdf

Climate Change, The IPCC Impacts Assessment, 1990  https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/03/ipcc_far_wg_II_full_report.pdf

Forest Fuels   

California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection  https://californiasaf.org/policy/forest-fuels-management/

University of California Cooperative Extension  https://ucanr.edu/sites/fire/Prepare/Treatment/

California chapter of the Society of American Foresters   https://californiasaf.org/policy/forest-fuels-management/

Soil Moisture maps

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Soilmst_Monitoring/US/US_Soil-Moisture-Monthly.php

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Soilmst_Monitoring/US/Soilmst/Soilmst.shtml#

Drought Maps

https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/Maps/MapArchive.aspx

Australia's Climate in 2019  

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/annual/aus/

Australia’s climate in 2019

• Australia's warmest year on record, with the annual national mean temperature 1.52 °C above average
• Both mean annual maximum and minimum temperatures above average for all States and the Northern Territory
• Annual national mean maximum temperature warmest on record (2.09 °C above average)
• Widespread warmth throughout the year; January, February, March, April, July, October, and December all amongst the ten warmest on record for Australian mean temperature for their respective months
• Significant heatwaves in January and in December
• Australia's driest year on record
• Nationally-averaged rainfall 40% below average for the year at 277.6 mm
• Rainfall below average for most of Australia
• Rainfall above average for parts of Queensland's northwest and northern tropics
• Much of Australia affected by drought, which was especially severe in New South Wales and southern Queensland
• Widespread severe fire weather throughout the year; national annual accumulated Forest Fire Danger Index highest since 1950, when national records began

Key References for Understanding Climate Change

Here are key references for understanding the cause and evidence for global warming and climate change. Also included are references for some of the consequences with a focus on Alaska.   Some of the references link to primary data (such as atmospheric data at Scripps); some assembly may be required.

CO2 Emissions

Boden, Marland & Andres, Global and National Fossil Fuel CO2, 2017

https://cdiac.ess-dive.lbl.gov/trends/emis/overview.html

BP Statistical Review of World Energy (annual fossil fuel CO2 emissions, by nation & type)

https://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/energy-economics/statistical-review-of-world-energy.html

U.S. Energy Information Agency, Data Tables, U.S. Energy Information Agency, Office of Energy Analysis, U.S. Department of Energy, Washington D.C. data tables, 2014

http://www.eia.gov/oiaf/aeo/tablebrowser/

Houghton 2008 (CO2 emissions from land use changes)

https://cdiac.ess-dive.lbl.gov/trends/landuse/houghton/houghton.html

Burton, 2013 (volcanic CO2 emissions)

https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/4e58/5f447a80c2965cb72c56945e4e9b2306833f.pdf

Lee 2016 (volcanic CO2 emissions)

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/290996133_Massive_and_prolonged_deep_carbon_emissions_associated_with_continental_rifting

EIA World CO2 Emissions Forecast to 2050, International Energy Outlook 2017

Forecast CO2 Emissions by Region

https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/aeo/data/browser/#/?id=10-IEO2017&sourcekey=0

ForecastCO2 Emissions by Fuel Type – select appropriate table.

https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/aeo/data/browser/

Atmospheric CO2

Global CO2 and del C13 isotopes. http://scrippso2.ucsd.edu/cosub2sub-data

Global O2.   http://scrippso2.ucsd.edu/  

Formerly available at CDIAC. https://cdiac.ess-dive.lbl.gov/

Heat Retention by Greenhouse Gases

Tyndall, 1861, 1872, cited in Arrhenius, 1906.

Arrhenius, 1896, On the Influence of Carbonic Acid in the Air upon the Temperature on the Ground

Arrhenius, 1906, The Probable Cause of Climate Fluctuations http://www.friendsofscience.org/assets/documents/Arrhenius%201906,%20final.pdf

NOAA Greenhouse Gas Index.  Page includes formulas for predictive calculation of radiative forcing as function of concentration, and a table for historical annual radiative forcing for major greenhouse gases.

https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/aggi/aggi.html

IPPC 5th Assessment Report, Anthropogenic Effective Radiative Forcing history, pp 1404 – 1409.

Table includes historical radiative forcing for greenhouse gases, and negative radiative forcing for cooling anthropogenic emissions. 

https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg1/

Trenberth, et al, 2009, Earth’s Global Energy Budget. 

http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/staff/trenbert/trenberth.papers/BAMSmarTrenberth.pdf

Ramaswamy, et al 2001, Radiative Forcing of Climate Change.

https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/03/TAR-06.pdf

Ocean Heat Content

https://www.nodc.noaa.gov/OC5/3M_HEAT_CONTENT/

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/climate-change-ocean-heat-content

https://cpo.noaa.gov/warmingworld/sea_surface_temperature.html

http://www.argo.ucsd.edu/

https://www.oceanscientists.org/index.php/topics/ocean-warming

Melting Ice

National Snow and Ice Data Center

https://nsidc.org/noaa

NASA Global Ice Viewer

https://climate.nasa.gov/interactives/global-ice-viewer/#/

Global Cryosphere Watch

https://globalcryospherewatch.org/

Antarctic and Greenland

Gravity measure of Antarctic and Greenland Ice Loss

https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/ice-sheets/

IMBIE: Ice Sheet Mass Balance Inter-Comparison Exercise

Antarctic and Greenland Ice-loss data preceding NASA GRACE mission.

http://imbie.org/

NASA Ice-Bridge Project

https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/icebridge/index.html

Arctic Sea Ice

Polar Science Center

http://psc.apl.uw.edu/research/projects/arctic-sea-ice-volume-anomaly/

Chart with relative volume loss (km3) 1980 – 2018.

http://nsidc.org/soac/sea-ice-age-year.html#seaiceagesequential

Sequential maps of Arctic sea ice extent and thickness.

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/snow-and-ice/extent/sea-ice/N/1

Sea Ice Data Portal

https://sites.google.com/site/arcticseaicegraphs/

NOAA Arctic Report Card

https://arctic.noaa.gov/Report-Card/Report-Card-2018/ArtMID/7878/ArticleID/780/SeanbspIce

Continental Glaciers

World Glacier Monitoring Service

https://wgms.ch/

WGMS Global Glacier Change Bulletin 2013

https://wgms.ch/downloads/WGMS_GGCB_01.pdf

Zemp et al, 2019, Global glacier mass changes and their contributions to sea-level rise from 1961 to 2016.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-019-1071-0

Permafrost
Pacific Marine Environment Laboratory, NOAA

https://www.pmel.noaa.gov/arctic-zone/detect/land-permafrost.shtml

UAF Geophysical Institute

https://www.gi.alaska.edu/research/snow-ice-and-permafrost

Jorgenson, 2006, Abrupt Increase in Permafrost Degradation in Arctic Alaska

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/228973531_Abrupt_increase_in_permafrost_degradation_in_Arctic_Alaska

USGS, Alaska’s Thawing Permafrost

https://landsat.gsfc.nasa.gov/pdf_archive/cape_halkett_4web.pdf

Warming Surface Temperature

https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/

https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/global-temperature/

https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/gridded/data.noaaglobaltemp.html

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/data-access/marineocean-data/noaa-global-surface-temperature-noaaglobaltemp

General Climate Change

Climate Dashboard, Climate.gov

https://www.climate.gov/maps-data#global-climate-dashboard

IPCC Fifth Climate Assessment, 2013

https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg1/

IPCC Fifth Climate Assessment 2013, Executive Summary, 2013

https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/WG1AR5_SPM_FINAL.pdf

Fourth National Climate Assessment, Vol. I and II, 2014

https://www.globalchange.gov/nca4

https://www.globalchange.gov/climate-change

Key findings of the 4th National Climate assessment, organized by topic and by region. https://nca2014.globalchange.gov/highlights#section-5683

NASA Climate Change

https://climate.nasa.gov/

JPL Satellite Data & Climate Models, Earth’s Energy Balance, Oceans & Ice, Carbon & Water

https://climatesciences.jpl.nasa.gov/

NOAA Climate Change

https://www.noaa.gov/climate

https://www.noaa.gov/education/resource-collections/climate-education-resources/climate-change-impacts

https://www.noaa.gov/categories/climate-change

National Climate Data Center/NOAA

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/monitoring-references/faq/indicators.php

NOAA Sea Level Rise Viewer

https://coast.noaa.gov/slr/

USGS

https://www.usgs.gov/faqs/what-are-some-signs-climate-change-1?qt-news_science_products=0#qt-news_science_products

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2019/07/trump-officials-deleting-mentions-climate-change-us-geological-survey-press-releases

European Space Agency Climate Work

https://www.esa.int/Our_Activities/Observing_the_Earth/Space_for_our_climate/ESA_s_Climate_Change_Initiative/(print)

http://cci.esa.int/

World Meteorological Organization, Global Climate Observing System

https://public.wmo.int/en/programmes/global-climate-observing-system

Sea Level

Lambeck et al, 2014, Sea level and global ice volumes from the Last Glacial Maximum to the Holocene

https://www.pnas.org/content/111/43/15296

R. Rohde, K. Fleming, Post-Glacial Sea Level

https://twitter.com/RARohde/status/1107919079699087360

NASA Sea Level

https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/sea-level/

Zemp et al, 2019, Global glacier mass changes and their contributions to sea-level rise from 1961 to 2016.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-019-1071-0

University of South Florida Satellite Oceanography Laboratory

http://xena.marine.usf.edu/~chambers/SatLab/Home.html

Sea-Level Rise for the Coasts of California, Oregon, and Washington

https://www.nap.edu/read/13389/chapter/4

https://www.nap.edu/read/13389/chapter/5

Chambers et al, 2016, Evaluation of the Global Mean Sea Level Budget

between 1993 and 2014

http://cerfacs.fr/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/GLOBC-Article-Chambers_etal_2016-1.pdf

French Space Agency, Satellite Altimetry Data website

https://www.aviso.altimetry.fr/en/data/products/ocean-indicators-products/mean-sea-level/msl-science-issues.html

NASA, New study finds sea level rise accelerating

https://climate.nasa.gov/news/2680/new-study-finds-sea-level-rise-accelerating/

Alaska and Arctic Climate Change

UAF Research

https://www.uaf.edu/research/

UAF International Arctic Research Center

https://uaf-iarc.org/

Alaska Oceans Observing System

http://www.aoos.org/

Arctic Research Consortium of the United States

https://www.arcus.org/

Rick Thoman, at 2019 Weather and Climate Summit, (time marker 1:58 to 3:12)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GHxQ2E7yYs8&feature=youtu.be

Rick Thoman, A Century of Alaska Weather and Climate, Science for Alaska Lecture Series

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yk8gCCzPbNg

Climatologists on Twitter:

Rick Thoman, IARC, https://twitter.com/AlaskaWx

Brian Brettschneider, UAF, https://twitter.com/Climatologist49

Zach Labe, UC Irvine, Cornell, https://twitter.com/ZLabe

Robert Rohde, Berkeley Earth, https://twitter.com/RARohde

Ocean and Food-Chain Stress

Seabird Die-off

https://www.nps.gov/subjects/aknatureandscience/commonmurrewreck.htm

https://www.adn.com/alaska-news/wildlife/2017/09/11/hundreds-of-dead-birds-found-on-bering-sea-shores/

https://www.adn.com/alaska-news/wildlife/2018/08/10/alaska-seabird-die-off-continues-for-another-summer/

Whale Deaths

https://www.adn.com/alaska-news/wildlife/2019/05/31/spike-in-gray-whale-deaths-triggers-federal-investigation-into-unusual-mortality-event/

Declining Humpback Migration and Calving

https://www.pacificwhale.org/research/citizen-science/great-whale-count/

Seal Die-off

https://www.adn.com/alaska-news/wildlife/2019/06/12/noaa-investigating-unusually-large-numbers-of-dead-ice-seals-along-alaskas-coast/

Krill and Mussel Die-off

https://www.adn.com/alaska-news/rural-alaska/2019/07/07/add-krill-and-mussels-to-the-list-of-unusual-marine-deaths-in-northwest-alaska/

Pink Salmon Die-off

https://www.adn.com/alaska-news/rural-alaska/2019/07/12/warmer-waters-investigated-as-cause-of-pink-salmon-die-off-in-norton-sound-region/