In recent years, America has supported or encouraged rebellions
in Tunisia, Libya, Egypt, Syria and Ukraine.
Americans and their government cheered the events of the “Arab Spring”
in 2011. The consequence of these
rebellions has been civil war, death, and great human suffering. The conflicts have created millions of
refugees, taxing humanitarian resources and causing social instability in
receiving countries. The poverty and
misery from these wars will cause problems for decades, much as the poverty
following the first World War contributed to the second World War.
The unrest leading to these rebellions existed before the
involvement of the United States. The
rebellions may have occurred anyway. But
the United States voiced support for these rebellions, and in some cases
contributed money, training, supplies, and military action in support of the
rebellions. The consequence of these rebellions is still
an unfolding tragedy.
Any policy which could lead to such consequences is
seriously misguided. The rebellions
which were encouraged and supported by the United States are spreading
terrorism and the risk of war to other countries – including the United States.
Let’s agree
on one simple thing. Civil wars are bad.
In the American Civil War (1860 – 1864) about 700,000 people
died, over 2 percent of the population, or about 8 percent of white adult
men. In the Russian Civil war (Nov. 1917 – Oct.
1922), following the Bolshevik Revolution, an estimated 9 million people died,
mostly civilians, from famine, disease, and violence, out of a population of
185 million people (also about 2% of the population). Since 1945, civil wars have resulted in the
deaths of 25 million people and the displacement of many millions more. Civil wars often destroy the fabric of a
country, and leave a legacy of poverty and violence for many years past the end
of the war.
During the Cold War, the United States condemned the Soviet Union for encouraging communist
uprisings around the world. Communist
regimes were established in China, North Korea, Cuba, and Vietnam. Unsuccessful insurgencies occurred in
Cambodia, Thailand, Malaysia, the Philippines, Venezuela, Nicaragua, El
Salvador, Honduras, Guatemala, and Angola.
Civil wars followed in a number of countries. While some of these countries have
established stable governments, most continue to suffer from poverty and instability.
At the same time, the United States pursued its own cold war
goals. The United States toppled the
government of Iran in 1953, Guatemala in 1954, Brazil in 1964, and Chile in
1973. Further civil instability followed
most of these for decades, and these countries also continue suffer from continuing
poverty and instability.
In recent years, the United States has done exactly what it condemned 40 years ago.
In recent years, the United States has done exactly what it condemned 40 years ago.
Neoconservative
Foreign Policy Becomes American Foreign Policy
In the 1990s, the neoconservative political movement became
dominant in American foreign policy. Neo-conservatives
include both the senior and younger Presidents George Bush and prominent
members of their administrations. The neoconservative
movement advocates aggressive promotion of democracy and American interests
around the world. This aggression
includes the use of military force and inciting rebellion against regimes
oriented against American interests.
The intellectuals of the neoconservative movement seem to have missed
the irony of using military force to achieve democracy. They are also unfazed by the general failure
to achieve a viable democracy through military intervention.
The neoconservative movement originated in the Republican
Party. It is surprising to me, then, that
the goals of the neoconservative
movement have been adopted, by mainstream Democrats, including Barack Obama and
Hilary Clinton. Even the Democratic
Socialist Bernie Sanders does little to condemn the foreign policy of earlier
administrations.
During the Obama administration, and under the Secretary of
State (foreign affairs) Hilary Clinton, the United States encouraged revolutions
in Libya, Tunisia, Egypt, Syria, and Ukraine.
Anti-government movements existed in these countries, independent of the
United States. But the United States offered
encouragement at a minimum, and in some cases, direct military action.
The policy has been described as “covert intervention”,
allowing the United States to fight small wars, with little direct involvement.
Democratic Party politicians are
reluctant to directly invade other countries with American troops, but they
show little hesitation in encouraging rebellions, by providing weapons, advisors, covert action by the CIA, and active bombing by US aircraft.
The Human
Cost of Recent Wars
Casualties
Libya – 30,000 killed, 50,000 wounded.
Egypt – 846 killed in the 2011 revolution; more than 2600
killed in post-coup unrest.
Syria – 270,000 killed.
Ukraine – More than 6000.
Iraq – Estimates vary widely, from 115,000 to 500,000.
Refugees
Refugees are an inevitable consequence of civil war, and the
most wide-scale tragedy. Refugee’s families
and lives are shattered. Refugees
suffer from poverty, disease, rape, loss of housing, employment, and
education. It is human tragedy on a
massive scale, greatly exceeding the number of those killed and wounded.
The United Nations High Commission on Refugees reported
earlier this year that the number of people displaced by conflict and persecution
was at an all-time high. About 60
million people are now counted as refugees, or almost 1% of all the people in
the world.
There are now about 11 to 12 million refugees from the civil
war in Syria, representing about half of the pre-war population of 22 million
people. That number is rapidly growing
as the war escalates. Over 4 million
people have fled the country, with most finding refuge in Turkey, Lebanon, and
Jordon. Other Middle Eastern countries
hosting large numbers of refugees include Egypt and Iraq. An estimated 825,000 refugees from Syria have
entered Europe, with 459,000 arriving by sea in 2015 alone.
In 2015, there are approximately 4 million refugees from war
in Iraq. This is the same number as
reported in 2007. About 3.5 million refugees
are internally displaced within Iraq.
Nearly 500,000 refugees and asylum-seekers are now in other
countries.
In Ukraine, there are about 1.4 million internally displaced
refugees, and about 900,000 who have fled to neighboring countries. About 1 million people lack access to safe
water.
There are about 800,000 internally displaced people in
Afghanistan, and about 2.7 million people who have fled the country.
The conflict in Libya has displaced over 360,000 people
within the country.
The Failed Foreign
Policy of “Regime Change”
There are countries on earth with governments that are
undemocratic. There are countries on
earth with leaders who are corrupt and tyrannical. There are countries on earth that actively
work against the interests and welfare of the United States. It might be that the people in those
countries would be better off with a different government. And in those countries, there are probably
citizens who deeply desire change.
By what right should one country intervene in the affairs of
another country? There are certain
circumstances, such as genocide, where the history of the last 70 years shows
that intervention is sometimes necessary to confront evil. But when the problem is simply bad
government, there is little justification for encouraging a rebellion against
an established government.
In cases of violence against civilian populations, as
happened under Saddam Hussein and Bashir Assad, there is an impulse to charge
to the rescue. But in each of these
interventions, the lives of the people at risk are now immeasurably worse, than
if they had continued to live under the repression of these dictators.
The process of regime change is never simple. There are few examples of a peaceful
transition from one system of government to another. In Iraq, American leaders have imagined that
regime change would be quick, painless and inexpensive. But the war which toppled Saddam Hussein
spawned sectarian violence, spread beyond the borders of Iraq and encouraged
the formation of the most violent Islamic organization of modern times. Thirteen years after the American invasion,
the situation continues to spiral out of control. There is a very real threat that the Syrian
war could ignite the next world war.
No one is better off as a result of the rebellions and
revolutions in these countries. If you regard the situation from a humane
viewpoint, the people of these countries were better off under their repressive
and corrupt former leaders. If the
strategists in the State Department are only looking at the cold geopolitical
analysis of Western interests, it is still clear that America and Western
Europe would be better off if these revolutions had not happened. The flood of refugees will cause social chaos
and is a breeding ground for terrorists.
America’s policy of encouraging rebellions and overturning
dictators has been disastrous to the people of those countries. These rebellions produced violence and social
instability, and are spreading terrorism and the risk of war to other countries
– including the United States.
References
Libya
The US performed the largest role in the NATO’s military action to
depose Ghaddafi.
US spending of about $1 billion on military action, the second highest
of any nation. Major military resources
committed.
Ukraine
Victoria Nuland speech admits 5 billion dollars of investment to
encourage association with Europe.
Obama quoted as saying the United States “brokered a power transition
in Ukraine”.
Victoria Nuland phone conversation discussing abilities of Ukrainian
leaders, and which leaders would be acceptable to the United States.
John McCain encouraging Ukrainian revolution.
Egypt
Syria
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